After almost 20 days of conflict, Donald Trump comes out as the clear winner from the killing of Soleimani, while Iran's own mistakes dissolve any international support the country might have gathered.
The American drone attack ordered by President Trump articulated to kill Iranian general Qassem Soleimani reinforces U.S. military superiority and Trump's devious geopolitical ways. The attack came as a response to the killing of a U.S. military contractor and protests around the U.S. embassy in Baghdad. Even though all human life is equally invaluable, a general like Soleimani embedded the fate of hundreds of thousands and was capable of shaping their worldviews classifying his killing as an absolutely disproportionate response to the previous events. Anyhow, Iran still managed to damage its reputation with hideous mistakes that should have never happened. Let us dive into why those are the outcomes of this episode, but first, a quick review of the events.
Protestors near the American embassy in Baghdad on December 31.
December 27
American defense contractor killed in Iraq military base by a rocket attack from Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian backed Shia militia group.
December 29
The United States executed two airstrikes in Syria and one in Iraq as a response to the previous attack, killing 25 people.
December 31
Violent protestors gathered around the U.S. embassy in Baghdad.
January 3
President Donald Trump ordered an airstrike killing ten people, including one of Iran's most adored revolutionary figures, Qassem Soleimani.
January 7
Iran retaliates Soleimanis killing by attacking two U.S. military bases in Iraq without casualties. Later on, the same night, Iran uses an anti-ballistic missile to shoot down a Ukranian airplane leaving 176 dead. In an official statement, they denied their involvement in the event.
January 11
After the surfacing of various videos and allegations that Iran had shot down the Ukrainian plane, they finally admit having mistakenly targeted the plane believing it was a U.S. missile.
President Trump before addressing the nation on January 8th, after Iran's retaliation.
Trump and the U.S.
Since his election, Trump has been taking various measures against peaceful intergovernmental organizations like the United Nations by disregarding its treaties, among other contestable actions. Regarding the U.N. itself, Trump slashed its 2018-19 budget in around US$ 285 million. The cutbacks arrive as a contest to U.N.s diplomatic capacities, especially considering the U.S. is responsible for more than 20% of the organization's budget and even before the cut already had one of the smallest contributions of any developed country in proportion to gross national income (GNI).
With that in mind, the American President has been conducting his foreign policies through the sheer display of military power as a mean of bargaining with other countries from higher ground. This method of dealing with international conflicts is extraordinarily questionable and dangerous, cutting back on almost two decades of ease on military tensions since the end of the cold war and the dissolution of the USSR.
The doomsday clock, which considers the end of the world will occur when the timer hits midnight, is at 2 minutes to midnight, as close to midnight as in 1953. In 1953 the world saw various armed conflicts and the development of thermonuclear weapons by the USSR. The bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the organization responsible for the doomsday clock, titles the current world's state of international affairs "The new abnormal."
Trump personally came out of the current episode with Iran as the incontestable winner. He was able to reinforce American military superiority through his command, generate some certainty about his ludicrous ways to deal with conflicts, and probably gained more momentum for his 2020 campaign. That is not without damaging the U.S. image as a trustworthy (and sane) international police as it had been the case since the end of World War II.
The crucial role played by other governments in the de-escalation of tensions between both countries is also significant noting. Markus Leitner, the Swiss ambassador in Tehran, passed on the message that Iran's counterattack had ended so the U.S. would refrain from taking unnecessary counter-measures, among other, not less critical, reports.
Iranian's paying tribute to General Qassem Soleimani.
Iran
The tensions between Iran and the U.S. have been rising since Trump's election. The American President enraged the Arab country with his discriminatory rhetoric during his campaign and subsequent travel ban. As a fulfillment of one of his campaign promises, the American President withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal setting stage for indirect attacks between both countries until the present conflict erupt.
After the killing of general Soleimani, Iran vowed revenge and finally settled the dispute on January 7 by attacking two American military bases on Iraq. Iran might have attacked an evacuated American military base yielding no casualties on purpose, aiming not to provoke more retaliation from the U.S., though that will never be certain. From the looks of it, the narrative of a military fiasco in which they were out-maneuvered would clamp stronger.
Let us not forget Iran also shot down a civilian plane by mistake while thinking they were intercepting an American missile. The error represents the tipping point for all international support the country might have fostered. The killing of 176 people in such a gruesome form represents Iran's absolute lack of respect for human life and the government's lack of unity and sync.
After the airplane crash, the Iranian government first tried to conceal from public knowledge their mistake alleging mechanical failure and denied foreign authorities to aid in the investigation. Within the next few days, a horror show regarding foreign policy ensured. As new evidence surfaced, which revoked their claim of mechanical failure, Iran accepted external help for the "investigation" while still denying what had happened. The country also decided it would be a great plan to recover all the debris before any help arrived, so a proper investigation could not be conducted properly. Four days after the crash, incontestable evidence that the plane was shot down had emerged, and Iran finally conceded their mistake. They have promised a thorough investigation, which is already shaping their scapegoat.
Trump Administration has also already enacted more economic sanctions against Iran due to their retaliation. The sanctions imposed upon the country come as an enormous burden to the already struggling Iranian economy, which sees its yearly inflation soar over 40 %. International sanctions might also be approaching, aggravating the problem.
Aftermath
At the end of this episode, while the U.S. seems to have aroused the winner, the whole world is left perplexed and fearful for Trump's ways. After Soleimani's killing, Iran would have come out with international support if it was not for their mistake regarding the Ukranian airplane. Now Iran is left without backing and awaiting more economic sanctions that will further harm its problematic economy.
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