Blog
2026
Monetary policy
Interest rates by decree: Lara Resende's theory vs. his plan
André Lara Resende is right that interest is what drives Brazil's public debt, but his plan depends on a 2.5% neutral rate, below what the Treasury, the market and the central bank itself point to. By the theory he invokes, forcing the Selic down without cutting spending ends in inflation; the road to lower rates runs through a larger surplus, which makes room for private investment and tends to lower the neutral rate.
Taxation
Brazil's 2027 VAT reform: revenue-neutral against which year?
Brazil's 2027 budget expects 19% more revenue from federal consumption taxes in the first year of a reform that promised not to raise taxes. The law measures neutrality against the 2012-2021 average, the increase falls mostly on service companies under the lucro presumido regime and in sectors kept at 3.65%, and prices take a one-time step up of 0.2% to 0.6%.
Politics
The comfort of stagnation
On the eve of Brazil's 2026 election, voters seem to say two things at once. In polls they declare themselves dissatisfied; at the ballot box they reaffirm the same old choice. That contradiction is the key to understanding the country.
2024
AI
AI and travel: ChatGPT as my professor in Japan
For two weeks in Japan I asked ChatGPT the questions a guidebook cannot answer, from why nobody eats while walking to how the samurai disappeared. It was an enlightening way to travel, and a lesson in where AI still needs a skeptical user.
2022
Monetary policy
Hard landing or black swan? FED, inflation, and economic downturn.
The world is facing rising inflation. Despite years of undershooting inflationary targets, countries are now dealing with inflation, and it is currently up to the central banks to correct course. In its toolkit, central…
Crypto
Layer 2, the Ethereum savior or killer?
Ethereum is the second-largest cryptocurrency in circulation and focuses on enabling the creation of smart contracts. Though Ethereum’s rise in price was the dream of most holders, its unseen consequence to the network…
2021
Energy
The economics of solar in Brazil
Brazil is a unique country to live in. From its receptive people to its abundant natural resources, the country enjoys tremendous growth and diversity opportunities. One aspect that makes Brazil even more singular is…
2020
Equity research
Tenda (TEND3) Research report
This report was developed to encompass all business areas of the construction company Tenda, listed in the Brazilian B3 index. It includes a business description, industry overview, competitive positioning, financial…
Markets
Iran, the unforeseen opportunity
The Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE), Iran’s only stock market, was the best performing market in dollars in 2019, yielding capital gains over 100% on a year over year (YoY) basis. The TSE’s rally comes as an enormous…
Geopolitics
Opinion: Outcomes of the US - Iran conflict
After almost 20 days of conflict, Donald Trump comes out as the clear winner from the killing of Soleimani, while Iran's own mistakes dissolve any international support the country might have gathered.