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Inflation
Monetary policy
Interest rates by decree: Lara Resende's theory vs. his plan
André Lara Resende is right that interest is what drives Brazil's public debt, but his plan depends on a 2.5% neutral rate, below what the Treasury, the market and the central bank itself point to. By the theory he invokes, forcing the Selic down without cutting spending ends in inflation; the road to lower rates runs through a larger surplus, which makes room for private investment and tends to lower the neutral rate.
Taxation
Brazil's 2027 VAT reform: revenue-neutral against which year?
Brazil's 2027 budget expects 19% more revenue from federal consumption taxes in the first year of a reform that promised not to raise taxes. The law measures neutrality against the 2012-2021 average, the increase falls mostly on service companies under the lucro presumido regime and in sectors kept at 3.65%, and prices take a one-time step up of 0.2% to 0.6%.
Monetary policy
Hard landing or black swan? FED, inflation, and economic downturn.
The world is facing rising inflation. Despite years of undershooting inflationary targets, countries are now dealing with inflation, and it is currently up to the central banks to correct course. In its toolkit, central…